2018/01/31

State of the Union

President Donald Trump delivered his first State of the Union address to Congress last night. In the hours leading up to the speech, many of the President's supporters voiced their hope that Trump would use the occasion to bludgeon his opponents by, say, reciting the FISA memo verbatim. Others expressed fears that he would instead focus on winning over fence-sitters to the exclusion of his base.

I'm happy to report that the President gave a most satisfactory speech that struck an effective balance between addressing the concerns of his ardent supporters and persuading those among his critics who can still be swayed. Jay Fivekiller had the best assessment of the speech, identifying it as an expertly delivered sales pitch.

Watch the video here.


Highlights:
  • The President deftly wove a compelling narrative into his speech which incorporated the military personnel, civil servants, and concerned and bereaved citizens attending as the First Lady's guests.
  • The Democrats sitting on their hands for or even booing tax cuts, immensely popular immigration reform measures, and rising black employment.
  • Trump giving the Democrats chance after chance to show support for these items prior to each of their churlish displays, giving them ample rope to hang themselves.
  • The President commandeering, in one fell swoop, the heretofore Leftist rhetoric of "Dreamers", much as he did to great effect with "Fake News". From now on, the term refers to Americans pursuing the American Dream instead of aliens seeking to profit from their parents' crimes.
  • Trump's building of a compelling case for why the Wall is needed for the nation's safety before once again calling on Congress to fund it.
Yet Trump's first State of the Union address was not all roses and sunshine. Mention was once again made of offering a path to citizenship for 1.8 million illegal aliens in exchange for the Wall and immigration reform. However, I'm convinced such talk is no cause for concern.

It seems increasingly likely that Jay Fivekiller is on to something with his contention that Trump is using his calls for a DACA deal to drive a wedge between Congressional Democrats and their base. The Left has already called Trump's offer of eventual citizenship to 1.8 million illegals "white supremacy". The Democrats simply have no leverage.

By not flinching during the government shutdown, the Trump-led Republicans have trapped the Democrats in a Xanatos Gambit where they have no winning moves left. If they accept an amnesty deal for 1.8 million, their barking mad base will harangue Chuck Schumer outside his house at all hours because he did not get amnesty for all 11 million. If he turns down Trump's deal--which he must--his moonbat base will castigate him for not saving the 1.8 million when he had the chance.

How will the current standoff turn out? I still favor a scenario similar to the one the Z Man laid out in his predictions for 2018. In short, DACA expires, but the Republicans give some kind of trivial sop to the Democrats in the infrastructure bill, which will include funding for the Wall. The GOP will use this string of successes, along with the fallout from the FISA memo, to retain control of Congress in the midterms.

If this forecast sounds a bit too sunny, keep in mind that events almost never proceed in a straight line. It's till incumbent upon us to stay alert, informed, and involved. There are worse uses of one's time than helping to melt Congress' phones.

9 comments:

  1. The daca standoff infuriates some of the base, but there does seem to be some interesting brinkmanship going on there, by tying DACA to two principles the progressives absolutely hate. That said I wish trump took it further and added two other campaign promises: Mandatory E-Verify and the end of birthright citizenship to the Wall and end of chain migration requirements he's already asking for. Time will tell how this gambit plays out though.

    One thing that did concern me was the Neo-con sounding talk about Iran and North Korea. That said threats and power plays are part of Trump's negotiation style, and his twitter threats have already gotten the Norks to talk to South Koreans, so we will see. Trump's unpredictable nature is great for confusing his enemies, but it does leave his supporters in the dark as well.

    It's best to let trump be trump and see where he takes all this. And like you said, be prepared to light fires under the right people when the time comes.

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    1. "The daca standoff infuriates some of the base..."

      That's also intentional on Trump's part. He can play good cop with the Dem leadership: "Give me a clean bill so I can help the DACA babies - a bill of love." Meanwhile, the base plays bad cop by lighting up the Congressional switchboard with calls for "No amnesty!"

      In short, trust Trump, but keep the pressure on the cucks. It's part of his plan.

      "That said I wish trump took it further and added two other campaign promises: Mandatory E-Verify and the end of birthright citizenship to the Wall and end of chain migration requirements he's already asking for."

      One reason I take Jay's predictions seriously is that he's correctly identified immigration as the generational, populist issue that will reshape American politics. The signs are all there, but the cucks are too enamored of their Cold War era economics paradigm, and the Democrats have been committed to fighting against Americans' demographic interests since 1965.

      That's all about to change though, and fast.

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    2. Jay pointed out that when the Overton window moves drastically enough to completely shut out one party on a generational populist issue, that party must scramble to catch up with the new status quo.

      The Dems have been sliding the Overton window on the GOP gradually in regard to social issues for a hundred years. But fake marriage, drug legalization, and even abortion pale as populist issues compared to immigration. Trump has slammed that window on the Dems' heads like Wilson Fisk braining a dude with a car door.

      The government shutdown is all the proof we need. Threatening to shut down the government was the most powerful ritual in the Lefty cargo cult's spell book. Every time they played chicken with the GOP over a shutdown, the Republicans folded. Now, for the first time, the spell failed, and the Dems blinked first. They're still in shock, unable to understand why Trump beat them at their own game.

      The reason is that immigration is_the_populist issue of our time. Ending illegal immigration and reducing legal immigration enjoy massive majority support. A total immigration moratorium is more popular than keeping immigration at current levels.

      And the nightmare the Dems don't want to confront--and that Trump leveraged in his speech--is that restricting immigration is increasingly popular with their black base.

      Schumer and Pelosi are savvy enough to catch on eventually. The nutjobs who represent the batshit crazy wing of their base cannot give up an inch of ground on immigration, so Jay predicts a civil war within the Democrat party. Look for outright Dem mutiny after they fail to retake Congress in November--which looks increasingly likely; the Dems' 20 point generic poll lead has evaporated to 4 points and falling.

      The current Dem leadership's superior experience and pragmatism will allow them to put down the mutiny and change their party platform to chase the retreating edge of the window. What you'll see then is both parties engaged in a bidding war to see who can give us more immigration reform.

      The Wall, ending chain migration, and shutting down the visa lottery will be in the infrastructure bill.

      Mandatory E-Verify will be implemented when their mounting pile of scalps eventually alerts the GOP to the fact that they're pushing the Overton window from the moral high ground for once.

      2020 is the year we end birthright citizenship. Jay thinks Trump is saving it for his reelection campaign platform, and that's a smart way to bet.

      Again, all of this could go south. If it does, it won't be due to some grand strategy the Left cooks up. Trump has them completely boxed in. They're stuck on defense with no way to hurt him. The Dems' only possible lifeline is GOP cowardice and stupidity, but the Left shouldn't count on it. Trusting in Republican fecklessness lost them the shutdown battle. Now it's losing them DACA. Mitch McConnell, of all people, has a taste for blood now. The GOP is looking more and more like Lane Meyer at the end of Better off Dead: "When you get a taste of success, I think you will find that it suits you."

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  2. "When you get a taste of success, I think you will find that it suits you."

    Been a long while, but I am savoring every sip.

    Great article, Brian, and thanks for the link to Jay!

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    1. "Been a long while, but I am savoring every sip."

      Same here, brother. Thanks!

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