2018/10/04

What Enthusiasm Gap?

Nate Silver's vaunted Enthusiasm Gap, which was supposed to drive the blue wave and give Democrats control of Congress, has closed.
Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.

Enthusiasm Gap

The tables have turned. Now it's Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and it's all thanks to Brett Kavanaugh.
The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week.
With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.
"The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened," noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
The Democrats' midterm strategy revolved around making November's elections a referendum on Trump. That play might have worked, thanks to that big, wall-shaped hole on the border. All they had to do was stick to the plan. But with their leadership now beholden to legions of emotionally incontinent freaks, the Senate Dems opted to hound Coach K like a pack of dogs chasing a squirrel.

By indulging their base's unreasoning hatred of straight, white, Christian men, Democrats have shifted the midterms from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on normalizing third world gangster politics. The normies ain't having it. Sixty percent of Americans say they want Kavanaugh confirmed if Flake's FBI investigation clears him.

And the FBI investigation just cleared him.
White House deputy press secretary Raj Shah told CNN's "New Day" that the FBI contacted 10 people as part of its reopened investigation into allegations against Brett Kavanaugh, and interviewed nine of them - none of whom corroborated claims levied against the Supreme Court nominee. 
But wait. It gets better.
Shah added that "Without getting in to the details, we feel very confident that when the senators have the opportunity to review this material, as they're just beginning to right now, that they are going to be comfortable confirming Judge Kavanaugh" after they see the results of the investigation. 
If I had to take a shot in the dark, I'd say those details the White House can't get into include the sharp reversal of electoral fortunes among red state Democrats who said they'd vote against Justice K. I'd further say that based on McConnell's filing of cloture and refusal to brook any more delays, the requisite arm-twisting has been done to get Kavanaugh his votes.

Raj Shah

Seventh time's the charm. The voters are satisfied that Kavanaugh is fit to serve on SCOTUS and will punish Congressional candidates who stubbornly oppose his confirmation. Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnelly, and Manchin understand that voting against Justice K will detonate their careers. It may be too late for them already. Their only chance is to vote to confirm, and they know it.

What if the red state Democrats and/or Collins, Murkowski, and Flake decide to go down with the ship? Democrats, not Republicans, will take the blame, and the GOP will be looking at a ten-seat Senate majority while retaining control of the House.

In the off chance that any Democrats have read this far into the post, be sure to tell your leaders how you feel about them folding to the crazies and breaking the blue wave. They've dramatically raised the odds of a near future with GOP majorities in both Houses and SCOTUS, which will increase to 6-3 when the next Senate breezily confirms Trump's pick to replace Ginsburg.

27 comments:

  1. flake released his statement saying that there is no corroboration evidenced in the FBI report, and concurs with Senator Collins that the investigation was thorough

    Do you hear that? That's the sound of a million democrats wailing in pain and grief.

    This is just the beginning

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    1. It is. Some Republicans will be tempted to take the win and put the circus behind them. Those days are over. We need to keep the pressure on the cucks.

      To really even the score? Haul Feinstein before the ethics committee. Charge Ford with contempt of Congress for a minimum $200k fine/2 years in prison. Make sure the punk staffer who doxxed Hatch and Graham spends the rest of his life in a gray concrete cube.

      Then, and only then, will the Left just maybe get the hint that trying to destroy an honest man puts them in a MAD scenario.

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    3. Before I was willing to say Ford was also a victim in all of this, but recent facts coming to light have made it evident that she is not. And let's not forget her fucking sleaze bag lawyers too. They should be disbarred for professional misconduct and thrown in prison with Ford. The Kavanaugh family should sue them in civil court for slander and emotional duress and leave them with nothing but a cardboard box to sleep in

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    4. The dems wanna play fuck fuck games? Alright, I'm down. Let's play some fuck fuck games

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    5. Almost forgot: Trump should nominate Roy Moore to fill Ginsburg's imminent vacancy.

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    6. Hmmm, tempting as that would be, the smarter (and more likely) play would be this Amy Barrett I've been hearing so much about. Don't know anything about her judicial record but considering it's Ginsburg's seat, nominating a woman should maker her less assailable. I'd say UN-assailable but if we didn't know already, we've certainly learned in the past few weeks there are no depths to which the democrats will not stoop to get their way.

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    7. Disagree Harrison. We have they on the run, routed. If we want to show strength, we ran someone good but equally scary to the Left down their throats. Don’t back pedal reflexively.

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    8. Gotta second Durandel on this one. Nominating Barrett because "muh wahmen" is accepting the Left's frame. Nominating Moore says loud and clear that we've broken that frame forever. It also redresses the atrocious injustice the GOPe did to him in the Alabama Senate election.

      And, oh yeah, no more women in government. Ever.

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    9. You know what? That's true

      Also hell yeah on the last part. No women in government, including Jeff Flake

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    10. I like this everything about this plan but the age of the parties involved. But surely we can think of something else for a dedicated civil servant like Judge Moore to do for his country!

      Why not nominate Stealth Jeff to the SC and make Moore the AG?

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    11. Because Moore has a proven track record as a state supreme court judge, and AG Sessions is pretty much the only reason anything has been done on immigration.

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    12. Eugh, I think Sessions should be tossed out post midterms. His ass has been absolutely useless in dealing with sanctuary cities and a treacherous FBI and Justice Department

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  2. As The God Emperor sips his diet coke while seated on the Ruby Throne. Still not tired.

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    1. Much as I love the GE, even HE couldn't have planned this out

      But he did take full advantage of it

      But, let's just look at the potential ramifications of this -
      A formerly milquetoast, mildly conservative family man who loves nothing more than beer and baseball has been turned into the Punished Judge, an avowed enemy of the democratic party who will rain fire and hell upon them for decades to come

      The further fracturing and demoralizing of the Dems already splintered base

      The re-invigoration of the of the republican voter base, absolutely shattering any hope of the blue wave and indeed, even probably fully reversing it. With holding the house and increasing their legislative lead in the senate (not to mention dumping Flake like the dead weight that he is) and with many of the incoming legislators being Trump-ite populists replacing old neocons, expect to see work on The Wall begin before the 2020 campaigning begins.

      *sips diet coke

      4D Chess indeed, my friends

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    2. Think of antifragility in action - (or evolution, if you prefer). As ESR once pointed separately but similarly to Taleb's book Antifragile, a winning strategy is to keep your options open instead of aiming for efficiency, so that you can take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves, but can't get cut off from critical supplies from the "only" path to victory.

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    3. You still run across people on our side who balk at the God-Emperor title. They don't understand what we mean by it. We're not saying Trump is a god. We've observed that God's hand rests on him. Anyone who doubts that at this point hasn't been paying attention.

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  3. At this point, I'm more concerned with the Chicago style will to power/ballot boxes dumped in the river gap. Any expectations of fair play on the part of the Democratic leadership should have been shattered by this circus.

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    1. Agreed. I expect Trump knows to watch out for that, especially after some of the chicanery involved in some of the blue-district counts during his election. At least, I hope he does. He certainly seems more astute about that sort of thing than the pre-Trump Republicans ever were.

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    2. Democrats always cheat. Trump's call to audit the 2016 vote shows he's well aware of it.

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  4. https://www.facebook.com/solent.greenis.7/videos/317696589006247/

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  5. Ah yes, Nate Silver. The great statistician whose bs-value is claimed to be 0.09 but always ends up closer to 0.001. Based on past differentials between his pro-globohomo prediction, to his back pedaled prediction to the actual, I’m going to say said “2 point gap” in fav of the Dems is really an 8 point gap in favor of Reps. How does that clown still have a job?

    Anyway, don’t invest in salt futures. November is going to produce a surplus.

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    1. The Left anointed Silver their court prophet because he called Romney's defeat at their false messiah's hands. Since then he's been a textbook example of leftoids failing up.

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    2. Inversely, widdle Ben Shapiro is the right wing version of literally always being wrong about everything he predicted since the 2015 primaries

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    3. Now Zionist Milhouse is on Twitter doing what he does best: narrowing the acceptable range of Conservative opinion to fit within the Overton Window.

      No, Ben. We do not all agree that Trump mocked Ford. He will, however, be locking her up for perjury.

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