2018/10/16

Red Tide

Red Tide

Political commentators have been predicting that the outcome of Judge Brett Kavanaugh's stormy Senate confirmation would have a noticeable impact on the upcoming midterm elections. Now the numbers are coming in, and we are witnessing an unmistakable Kavanaugh effect.
In case you haven’t been paying attention, the Republicans are going to remain in control of both the House and the Senate in a couple of weeks.  Since their flawless victory over the Democrats in the fight to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, the Republican base is more energized now than at any point since November 2016.
Earlier I reported on the dramatic closing of Nate Silver's much-hyped Enthusiasm Gap. The formerly ambivalent Republican base suddenly got fired up, and that was before Cocaine Mitch confirmed Judge Dredd.

Even had Kavanaugh been defeated, the current tightening of the Congressional races shouldn't be a surprise. This is what always happens: Democrat pollsters gush about biased polling results showing the blue team overperforming for months as a propaganda tool to depress Republican turnout. Then they rapidly walk back their lavish forecasts so they can maintain their accuracy ratings. True to form, the almighty Blue Wave is breaking.
Overall, we’re moving nine races: five away from Democrats and four away from Republicans. Of the 73 races we’re tracking as at least somewhat competitive, 26 now lean toward the GOP, 16 lean toward the Dems and 31 are toss-ups.
Now, Fox News says that the Democrats only need to win 10 of those 31 toss-up races, but here's an important factor that makes a blue team win more daunting than it sounds.
The thing about those toss ups, though, is that they are almost completely in Republican territory.
Even races the Dems thought were in the bag are slipping through their fingers. Young Kim is leading over Gil Cisneros in Califormia. Florida Democrats had to replace a popular candidate who won her primary by 77% after she died suddenly. Also in Florida, Republican Maria Elvira Salazar is pulling away from Clinton stooge Donna Shalala.

Salazar-Shalala
I wonder why.
The Senate is looking even better as Zodiac is trouncing Paddy O'Bama. Elsewhere, Captain Marvel has pulled ahead of Problem Glasses to replace Flake, and the hag who crossed the Virgin Chad is going to pay.

Only your vote can summon the Red Tide, so take heart but don't get complacent. And invest in popcorn futures.

21 comments:

  1. Not only will I be voting, I'm one of the Voting Inspectors for the Free and Armed Republic of Texas! (Thank you, John C. Wright, for this wonderful name. Even if the acronym is FART.)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Call the Lightning!

    Early voting has my picks and the D who chose to support freaks and social terrorists instead of her State is now sinking in the polls.

    Deus Vult!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Blue Wave was always just Lefty agitprop. They don't even try to make the polls look plausible anymore. You'd think they'd recheck their math when every other metric from GOP affiliation overtaking the Dems, to voter enthusiasm, to the DNC going broke while the RNC's coffers overflow, indicates a Republican landslide victory.

      The only two factors the Dems had going for them were coastal bubble dwellers' hatred of Trump and the GOPe's failure to deliver on the MAGA agenda. While some claimed the Kavanaugh confirmation would energize the Dem base as much as the GOP, it hasn't panned out that way. Only thrice-divorced pussyhatters are salivating over promises of impeaching the GE and his High Inquisitor. The Democrat yeomanry: blue collar stiffs and teachers' union Boomers, are shaken by what their leadership did to Coach K. Meanwhile, the Dems' pushing Ford's BS didn't play as expected with normal women. You can't kid a kidder.

      That's not even accounting for the elephant in the room. The Democrats are completely dependent upon minorities turning out to vote in significant numbers. I haven't seen figures to this effect, but looking at the demographic makeup of the SCOTUS protesters gives the impression that blacks and Latinos didn't particularly care about the Kavanuagh circus. Minorities have low voter turnout to start with, they historically vote in even lower numbers during midterms, and they don't have a pressing reason to turn out now, excepting some Democrat noises about abolishing ICE.

      In that vein, much has been made of Kanye West's meeting with Trump. If black support for Republicans increases by 10%, the Democrats are finished as a national party. The Kanye Summit is unlikely to have moved the needle that far. What it may have done is convince black voters to stay home in enough numbers to hobble the Democrats' efforts.

      Delete
  3. I am unfortunately mired in the Democratic hellhole that is California but I will still vote for John Cox (who is gaining more than any Republican ever should in cali btw) and a red ticket the whole way down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We in IL feel your pain. #DigTheMoat

      Delete
    2. Hand me a shovel and I'll dig like John Henry

      Delete
    3. Here in FL, we are welcoming droves of Californian NPCs, immigrants, and boomer retirees. We need more than to dig a moat on the northern end, we need to #SinkTheShips and #BlowTheBridges.

      So I too share your pain friend, but fight on.

      Delete
  4. That pick of Shalala does not do the bridge troll justice. If you were to see a full photo or meet her in person, you'd see she's below 5' tall and bears the likeness of a giant toad-human hybrid or a Deep One. She looks like Danny Devito's long lost twin sister, and she's the uglier of the two. Thankfully she's a lesbo, so her sin has spared us her ability to taint the gene pool, and helped out media whore, twice divorcee, near-Wall MILF Salazar not look so bad to everyone in district 27.

    Southern Europeans and their counterparts in the Americas, are simple political creatures. They like their men masculine, tough, and of high status, and their women pretty. The political promises are secondary. It's prom king/queen voting rules that you typically see in liberal democracies, but with testosterone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sometimes those Mediterranean preferences pay off. See Jair Bolsonaro, future president of Brazil.

      Delete
    2. Ah Bolsonaro, another true Hero of the Imperium

      Delete
  5. Hmm, a lotta sources you posted still seem iffy on a republican blitzkrieg. Typical bet hedging? Democratic bias? Whaddya think? RCP still for some unfathomable reason has the AZ senate race as a toss up

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think we're in for a Republican blitzkrieg. A rising tide is not a wave. From the outset I predicted that Trump would drag the GOP across the finish line, and that's exactly what he's doing.

      Like I explained above, polls are not meant to accurately forecast election outcomes. They are propaganda designed to raise your side's morale and demoralize the other side.

      Most of the alleged toss-ups are nothing of the kind. RCP's reporting on the AZ race is a perfect example. The polls they cite are about two weeks old. They predate Sinema's "Crazy Arizonans" implosion and revelations of her ties to deeply unsavory people. An updated report from October 11 has McSally up by 6. If you ask actual Arizonans, they'll tell you Sinema is done.

      That's the con these pollsters run every election cycle, and people always fall for it. Fox News themselves reported that 29 of the 31 toss-up races are in staunch Republican districts. What's happening is the pollsters are manipulating the numbers--by using old results, oversampling Democrats, massaging the figures, etc.--to make Democrat voters think they have a chance of winning. That's been the Dems' strategy since 2016. Don't fall for it. The fact that Fox News pointed out the con only to immediately fall for it themselves shows they're only marginally more reliable than the rest of the MSM.

      Delete
  6. Hi all,
    What impact will Warren's implosion and the exposure of her lie have on the overall elections?
    From what I've read she's pretty much meteor particles burning up on entry.
    But how much will this galvinize non Dem voters?
    xavier

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Don't forget the leaked Project Veritas video of Senator Claire McCaskill from Missouri, in an already neck and neck race with Republican Josh Hawley in an already blood red state that went for Trump

      Delete
    2. Yea McCaveinskill looks finished. No way voters in Missouri overlook this egregious insult. She really takes them for idiots but she's a putz
      xavier

      Delete
  7. I don't understand ANY of those arcane references, but they DO make you sound a lot more like Nostradamus; so, bonus points for style and classicism.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You didn't know that Ted Cruz is the Zodiac Killer? Do you even internet?

      Delete
    2. I prefer Lion Ted. He along with Cocaine Mitch and Lindsay Graham Slam have earned their spots as the God Emperor’s Chief Lieutenants in the coming crusade

      Delete
  8. As I always say, I'm Canadian and cannot vote, but will be praying that everything will work out for the best. God bless the United States of America and her people.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you. May God bless Canada and all Canadians as well. I heard your recent elections went favorably. Congratulations.

      Delete