2018/10/22

Pure Narrative-spinning

Comments from a number of readers about the upcoming midterm elections. occasioned this follow up to a previous post.

The mainstream media's assertion that married suburban women will abandon the GOP in droves over the Kavanaugh affair is pure narrative-spinning. They don't cite numbers because the numbers show women believed Ford even less than men did. You can't kid a kidder.

More actual numbers: Early voting and absentee ballots in 11/12 House districts that have reported so far--the 12th is in California--show Republicans turning out in greater numbers than Democrats.

That in itself is nothing to write home about. The story usually goes that Republicans outnumber Democrats in absentee voting, and then the Dems balance it out on election day.

What is remarkable is that A) Early Republican voting is surpassing even 2016 numbers, and B) Democrats are underperforming--not just below 2016 numbers, but below 2014 numbers.

Historically, Dems suffer a slump in voter turnout during midterms. They need presidential election-level turnout to get a blue wave. Instead, they're already falling short of the previous midterms.

Remember that SJW's always project. What's really happening is that only about 20% of Democrat voters are fired up. That's basically the wine aunt and male feminist set. Normal women don't care. Neither do blacks and Latinos. The old blue-collar base is horrified that their own party might do to them what they did to Kavanaugh.

Listen to what the MSM and the Dem leadership are saying. They're not talking like high energy people with confidence. Instead they're freaking out over NPC memes. Meanwhile, their court astrologers like Nate Silver quietly walk back their predictions of triumph.

That stuff about flipping suburban seats blue is more projection in response to early voting results. Two Dem seats everybody thought were safe just moved into the toss-up category. Wyoming, which tracks changes in party affiliation, reports that 12,000 people switched parties, and 90% of them switched to the GOP.

These aren't poll numbers, which are projections of opinion. These are hard, empirical data. What the data say is that Dems have lost momentum while GOP voters are fired up. And the GE keeps fanning the flames with tough talk on immigration.

Now, I'm not saying this is a done deal. Whatever you do, don't get complacent. I still don't see a Red Wave yet. What I am seeing is pretty much what I expected to happen, and at this point I think it's enough to back up my prediction of the GOP narrowly holding the House while gaining 4 or 5 seats in the Senate.

Even if the Dems pull off an upset in the House, I'm not worried. The Lefty pollsters are already admitting that the GOP is guaranteed to keep the Senate, so the worst we'll get is two more years of Congressional deadlock. Meanwhile, Cocaine Mitch will keep pushing through Trump's judges while the GE mocks the Dems' futile impeachment attempts. We're either in for one night of exquisite triumph or barrels of fun spread out over two years. God really does give superabundantly.

Commenter Alex says:
You speak a lot of sense Brian. I’m inclined to see things your way—admittedly, I’m biased, but I’m also numbers guy and a cultural observer, and this ain’t 2012. 
I'm not a numbers guy, but I am a cultural observer, and I take careful note of which numbers guys have reliable track records.

GOP absentee/early voter turnout is above 2016 levels, and corresponding Dem numbers are below 2014 levels. 2016 voter turnout was 60%, while 2014 turnout was 36%. Starting from this baseline it's highly unlikely that Republican turnout will fall below 2014 or that Democrats beat their 2016 performance. With that in mind, here are the possible outcomes I see for the midterms:

  • GOP 2016+/Dems 2014- = Red Tsunami.
  • GOP 2016+/Dems 2014 = Red Wave.
  • GOP 2016+/Dems 2016 = Red Tide.

  • GOP 2016/Dems 2014- = Red Wave.
  • GOP 2016/Dems 2014 = Red Tide.
  • GOP 2016/Dems 2016 = Status quo.

  • GOP 2014/Dems 2014- = Red Wave.
  • GOP 2014/Dems 2014 = Status Quo.
  • GOP 2014/Dems 2016 = Blue Wave.

There is one scenario out of the nine possible that results in a Blue Wave. Only one. That is for the Dems to turn out in presidential election numbers while Republicans turn out in numbers comparable to the prior midterms. Current data show the exact opposite happening. However, Republican turnout does tend to wane slightly on election day while Democrat turnout increases. That's why I'm sticking with a GOP 2016/Dems 2014 Red Tide final tally.

7 comments:

  1. I vote to change “Red Tsunami” to “Red Storm Rising.” For make no mistake, the Red Storm IS rising

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  2. Brian,

    The NPC meme is quite effective because it simplifies what the blue collars regard with horror towards the Dems. Americans have an admirable trait: they greatly respect people of conviction and principle who hold fast even if when theere's disagreement.

    NPCs are not playdoh figures with attached voiceboxes

    xavier

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  3. My main concern at this point is fraud. We just went through 8 years of having an entire administration staffed by folks vetted by the Chicago Outfit or their spawn, a city run for a couple decades a mere 25 years ago by an alderman who was the youngest son of a mob hitman. 25 years might seem like a long time, but Roti's 'legacy' is all the people who he got started on their careers.

    And so on. History is full of cases of voter fraud, almost always on the blue side. (I think 'Teapot Dome' is on the tests because it's one of the rare cases where Republicans played all the leading roles.)

    So, if things were played fair (Ha! I kill me!) there would be vanishingly small chance of a blue wave. But things have not been played fair for a long, long time, if ever.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joseph,

      but isn't that precisely what the current administration is scrutizing and has already taken into account for corruption?
      I bet that some districts will face surprise visits from somefederal law enforcement agency that's not the FBI to investigate the corruption cases

      xavier

      Delete
    2. Excellent point. I can back up everything you said, having lived my entire life in the shadow of Cook County.

      Washington DC always ran on graft, but it used to be the simple kind where if you wanted an exemption from a regulation or first dibs on a government contract, you greased the right palm and that was it.

      Z Man explained it well. The Clintons came to town back in 92, and they brought along Arkansas style corruption. This was a game-changer because instead of simple pay-for-play, the big man took a cut of every transaction. While he got the sweetest plum, he made sure everybody down the chain got a taste. DC turned into a crooked precinct where half the cops are on the take, and the other half go along to get along.

      Enter Barack Obama, who forged an unholy marriage between Arkansas style graft and the Chicago machine politics you described. Therein lies the Swamp.

      This is why we must #DigTheMoat.

      Delete
  4. Speaking of the election, I saw the headline “TRUMP SPREADS LIES AND STOKES FEAR AHEAD OF EECTION” on CNN while walking into my office just now.

    Doesn’t that sun up CNN’s raison d’etre?

    Brings to mind this meme: https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/023/397/C-658VsXoAo3ovC.jpg

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    Replies
    1. That's a perfect example of the Left's current desperation.

      Confident Lefties = smug and sanctimonious.

      Defeated Lefties throw tantrums (more than usual).

      The purpose of that CNN piece is to pre-rationalize their impending loss and give their popped ego balloons a soft landing.

      "There was no blue wave? The mother ship didn't come to save us from the end times when the cult leader said? It's all BadOrangeMan's fault! His lies scared the visitor from Clarion away!"

      Delete