2018/10/17

Polls Are Propaganda

Blue Flush

Wherein I respond to a commenter who expressed trepidation about the rising Red Tide:
Hmm, a lotta sources you posted still seem iffy on a republican blitzkrieg. Typical bet hedging? Democratic bias? Whaddya think? RCP still for some unfathomable reason has the AZ senate race as a toss up
I don't think we're in for a Republican blitzkrieg. A rising tide is not a wave. From the outset I predicted that Trump would drag the GOP across the finish line, and that's exactly what he's doing.

Polls are not meant to accurately forecast election outcomes. They are propaganda designed to raise your side's morale and demoralize the other side.

Most of the alleged toss-ups are nothing of the kind. RCP's reporting on the AZ race is a perfect example. The polls they cite are about two weeks old. They predate Sinema's "Crazy Arizonans" implosion and revelations of her ties to deeply unsavory people. An updated report from October 11 has McSally up by 6. If you ask actual Arizonans, they'll tell you Sinema is done.

That's the con these pollsters run every election cycle, and people always fall for it. Fox News themselves reported that 29 of the 31 toss-up races are in staunch Republican districts. What's happening is the pollsters are manipulating the numbers--by using old results, oversampling Democrats, massaging the figures, etc.--to make Democrat voters think they have a chance of winning. That's been the Dems' strategy since 2016. Don't fall for it. The fact that Fox News pointed out the con only to immediately fall for it themselves shows they're only marginally more reliable than the rest of the MSM.

The Blue Wave was always just Lefty agitprop. They don't even try to make the polls look plausible anymore. You'd think they'd recheck their math when every other metric from GOP affiliation overtaking the Dems, to voter enthusiasm, to the DNC going broke while the RNC's coffers overflow, indicates a Republican landslide victory.

The only two factors the Dems had going for them were coastal bubble dwellers' hatred of Trump and the GOPe's failure to deliver on the MAGA agenda. While some claimed the Kavanaugh confirmation would energize the Dem base as much as the GOP, it hasn't panned out that way. Only thrice-divorced pussyhatters are salivating over promises of impeaching the GE and his High Inquisitor. The Democrat yeomanry: blue collar stiffs and teachers' union Boomers, are shaken by what their leadership did to Coach K. Meanwhile, the Dems' pushing Ford's BS didn't play as expected with normal women. You can't kid a kidder.

That's not even accounting for the elephant in the room. The Democrats are completely dependent upon minorities turning out to vote in significant numbers. I haven't seen figures to this effect, but looking at the demographic makeup of the SCOTUS protesters gives the impression that blacks and Latinos didn't particularly care about the Kavanuagh circus. Minorities have low voter turnout to start with, they historically vote in even lower numbers during midterms, and they don't have a pressing reason to turn out now, excepting some Democrat noises about abolishing ICE.

In that vein, much has been made of Kanye West's meeting with Trump. If black support for Republicans increases by 10%, the Democrats are finished as a national party. The Kanye Summit is unlikely to have moved the needle that far. What it may have done is convince black voters to stay home in enough numbers to hobble the Democrats' efforts.

2 comments:

  1. Huzzah! My comment finally made it to a blogpost! (To clarify that’s an alternate account from whenever i comment via desktop)

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